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Modelling geohazard cascades involving large rockslides in seismically active mountains (Geocascade)

A rock avalanche in the Swiss Alps (Photo by Lisa Luna)
A rock avalanche in the Swiss Alps, visited during the GEOCASCADES kick-off meeting in September 2026 (Photo by Lisa Luna)

Project period:

2026 - ongoing

Funding agency:

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)

Project description:
The goal of this project is to study the dynamics of rockslides and related dam formation as part of earthquake-induced hazard chains considering also climatic influences. We focus on very large failures that happened or might happen during (possible multiple) trigger, runout, river-blocking and dam-breach process chains. For the first, we derive diagnostics of whether large, rapid rock slope failures can block rivers, while for the second we will explore whether the dams are composed of deposits from multiple failures instead of a single one. This distinction has important implications for hazard assessment, because the dating of reactivated failure helps refine the poorly constrained recurrence intervals of large rockslides and their seismic and climatic triggers. Tightly connected with ongoing collaborative projects, and based on our past research, we focus on selected sites that are 
located in mountain areas prone to large rockslides in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan, and the Swiss Alps. Our joint surveys will synthesize results from structural geology analyses of rockslide source areas and a mapping of geomorphic surfaces to reveal episodes of landslide reactivation and river damming. We will also do seismological surveys, geophysical prospection, and 3D geological models of rock slopes and dams. Various types of numerical models (including codes based on distinct and finite elements) will estimate the seismic response and slope stability of both potential rockslide source areas as well as existing dams, and the downstream geomorphic impacts of dam failures. 

Cooperation partners

This is a collaborative research project with the partners from ETH Zurich, Uni of Liège and Uni of Lovain.