Time Scale: March 2019 - Feb 2022
The work of the NatRiskChange PhD-project Q4 resulted in the development of a method for hydro-meteorological hazard damage estimation at seamless spatial scales. This method enables probabilistic object-based damage estimation under the consideration of the associated uncertainties, consistently at all spatial scales. So far, the method was applied and positively validated to a flood event in Germany. The next step is the application of the method to meteorological hazards and possibly compound events.
The overarching research question is how Germany, or even Europe, could be affected by hydro-meteorological hazards under different future scenarios including uncertainties associated with the assumptions on hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The expected results are probabilistic hydro-meteorological hazard damage estimations for possible future scenarios. In addition, information about the reduction of uncertainty and in conjunction with this a reduction of possible damage could be provided.
The representation of uncertainties associated to the assumptions within the results is needed for meaningful predictions. However, current approaches lack this representation making this aspect to one of the main novelties in this project. The results would contribute to a facilitation of efficient risk management and optimal decision making under uncertainties. Consequently, the outcome of this project could have direct impact on the society.
Publications within NatRiskChange:
AGARWAL, A., BOESSENKOOL, B., FISCHER, M., Hahn, I., Köhn, L., LAUDAN, L., MORAN, T., OZTURK, U., Riemer, A., Rözer, V., SIEG, T., VOGEL, K., WENDI, D., Bronstert, A., Thieken, A.H. (2016): Die Sturzflut in Braunsbach, Mai 2016 - Eine Bestandsaufnahme und Ereignisbeschreibung. Taskforce im Rahmen des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World, Universität Potsdam (Publisher), 20 pages, urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394881.
Kuhlicke, Ch., Masson, T., Kienzler, S., SIEG, T., Thieken, A. H., Kreibich, H. (2019): Multiple flood experience and social resilience: Findings from three surveys on households and companies exposed to the 2013 flood in Germany, Weather, Climate and Society, accepted.
LAUDAN, J., Rözer, V., SIEG, T., VOGEL, K., Thieken, A.H. (2017): Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17: 2163–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017.
SIEG, T., Schinko T., VOGEL, K., Mechler R., Merz B., Kreibich H. (2019): Integrated Assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic Flood Impacts including Uncertainty Quantification, PLOS One, 14(4), e0212932. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212932.
SIEG, T., VOGEL, K., Merz, B., Kreibich, H. (2019): Seamless Estimation of Hydrometeo-rological Risk Across Spatial Scales. Earth‘s Future, 7(4): 574-581, doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001122.
SIEG, T., VOGEL, K., Merz, B., Kreibich, H. (2017): Tree-based flood damage modelling of companies: Damage processes and model performance, Water Resources Research, 53: 1-19, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020784.
Sultana, Z., SIEG, T., Kellermann, P., Müller, M., Kreibich, H. (2018): Assessment of Business Interruption of Flood-Affected Companies Using Random Forests, Water, 10(8): 1049, doi.org/10.3390/w10081049.
VOGEL, K., LAUDAN, J., SIEG, T., Rözer, V., Winter, B., Thieken, A.H. (2017b): Data collection for a damage assessment after the flash flood in Braunsbach (Germany) in May 2016. GFZ Data Services. https://doi.org/10.5880/fidgeo.2017.015.
VOGEL, K., OZTURK, U., Riemer, A., LAUDAN, J., SIEG, T., WENDI, D., AGARWAL, A., Rözer, V., Korup, O., Thieken, A.H. (2017a): Die Sturzflut von Braunsbach am 29. Mai 2016 - Entstehung, Ablauf und Schäden eines “Jahrhundertereignisses”. Teil 2: Geomorphologische Prozesse und Schadensanalyse, Hydrologie & Wasserbewirtschaftung, 61(3): 163-175, https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2017,3_2