Dedicated Lectures in Natural Hazard and Risk Research

Dr. Odin Marc,Junior Researcher at CNRS, will give a lecture titled:

What do we need to better constrain spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall induced landslides?

 

The seminar will be on the 1st of June from 10:00 - 12:00.

The venue is at:

Room 1.15

Haus 1, Room 1.22

Universität Potsdam

Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24/25

14476 Potsdam

 

Abstract:

Storm-induced landsliding is a global and recurrent hazard, likely to increase with the strengthening of extreme precipitation events associated with current climate change. Risks associated with landslide hazard could be mitigated, for example with early warning systems or forecasting procedures. However, these approaches require to have constrained a tight relation between rainfall characteristics and the occurrence of landsliding. A traditional approach has been to derive such relationships from the failure of individual landslides, but the development of landslide mapping from satellite imagery allows now to constrain large landslide inventories triggered by single storm. Thus, at regional scale, forecasting the region of occurrence of a widespread landsliding event may be easier than forecasting the failure of individual slopes. First, I will start by illustrating the importance of not only considering rainfall during the triggering storms but also past extreme rainfall in the area to understand the pattern of triggered landsliding during a large typhoons in Japan. Then I will show how this approach can be used in data-poor areas by defining and computing rainfall anomaly from rainfall products derived by satellites products, with global applications for 20 landslide events. Using 20 years of data from these satellite products over regional area I discuss how the spatial pattern of intense anomaly corresponds to the landslide pattern, and if years without reported landslides have low level of anomalies. Upon improvement and validation, this approach may also be extended towards nowcasting and potentially forecasting based on meteorological models. These results apply to landslide datasets associated to well identified, relatively short-lived storms, where the long-term dynamic of soil moisture accumulation is not a major control. It cannot be applied in persistently rainy areas, with almost constant clouds, or with heavy continuous rainfall, as for the Himalayan monsoon. Thus, in a second time, I will present a new methods using Sentinel-1 satellite radar amplitude time-series data to time (within one week) the occurrence of landslides. After demonstrating the potential of the methods for well constrained rainfall or earthquake events, I will show the resulting dates for a several seasonal catalogs of monsoon-induced landslides and discuss their relation to the gorkha earthquake and to rainfall measurements. Last, I will show that, in various settings, large, deep-seated landslides departs from the behaviour of the shallower landslides. Based on literature and preliminary results I will discuss how the characterization of antecedent deformation could perhaps be a way forward to better predicts these large landslides with a key impact on hazard and erosion.

Invited Lectures in 2021

Date Name Title
15.12.2021 Babita Malakar, IIT Rorkee, India Framework development for landscape evolution of the Himalayan (Alaknanda) river basin in response to natural hazards and associated geomorphological changes
15.12.2021 Prachi Singhal, IIT Rorkee, India Projection of flood seasonality Changes in a Garhwal Himalayas river basin due to global warming
15.12.2021 Aniruddha Saha, IIT Rorkee, India Forecasting of Glacial Lakes evolution and size over the years
17.11.2021 Prof. Sergiy Snizhko, National Taras Shevchenko University of Kyiv, Ukraine Water resources of Ukraine: assessment of climate impact, availability and adaptation measures
09.06.2021 Dr. Peter Greve, IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria Uncertain water resources in a changing world
15.03.2021 Inga Sauer, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany Disentangling drivers of historical river flood losses
19.02.2021 Prof. Walter Immerzeel, Utrecht University, Netherlands Climate-change impact on Himalayan hydrology
08.02.2021 Dr. Manuela Brunner, National Center for Atmospheric Research, US Spatial hydrologic extremes in the United States: from floods to droughts
25.01.2021 Dr. Annette Patton, University of Oregon, US Integrating soil moisture, precipitation, and geomorphic assessment for a community-driven landslide warning system in Sitka, Alaska

Invited Lectures in 2020

Date Name Title
04.12.2020 Dr. Wolfgang Schwanghart, University of Potsdam, Germany How debris damages dams - and why we need geomorphology in hydropower safety assessment
20.10.2020 Dr. Shyam Nandan, ETH Zürich, Switzerland RichterX: an operational earthquake prediction platform
13.10.2020 Dr. Timothy Hewson, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom ECMWF approaches to forecasting hazardous weather
03.09.2020 Dr. Sylvie Parey, EDF Lab Paris-Saclay, France The link between mean, variance and extremes and its use to estimate future extremes: examples for temperature and rainfall
12.08.2020 Dr. Cecilia Nievas, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ, Germany Moving toward building-by-building damage assessment: an earthquake scenario in the city of Cologne
25.06.2020 Dr. Luis Samaniego, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ (Leipzig), Germany Concurrent droughts and heatwaves: past, present and future perspectives for Europe
18.06.2020 Prof. Dr. Kerstin Stahl, University of Freiburg, Germany Recent drought events in Germany: impact of climate change and changing impacts
11.06.2020 Dr. Martina Kauzlaric, University of Bern, Switzerland Hydro-meteorological stress tests of modelling chains for flood impact studies
05.03.2020 Dr. Yoshito Hirata, University of Tsukuba, Japan My personal history of recurrence plots: A journey starting from neuroscience to econophysics, geosciences and molecular biology05.03.2020

Invited Lectures in 2019

Date Name Title
28.11.19 MSc. Marlies Barendrecht, TU Wien, Austria The value of empirical data for estimating the parameters of a sociohydrological flood risk model
23.10.19 Dr. Morteza Zargar, University of Potsdam, Germany Contrary extreme hydrological events in Iran in 2018 and 2019
16.09.19 MSc. Michael Szoenyi, Zurich Insurance, Switzerland The Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance: pre-event resilience building and post-event forensic research
12.08.19 Prof. Wilfried Haeberli, University of Zurich, Switzerland Some reflections on risk reduction related to vanishing high-mountain ice
31.07.19 Dr. Toon Haer, VU Amsterdam, Netherlands Integrating decision-making processes in flood risk analysis – an agent-based modelling approach
20.05.19 Dr. Uwe Ehret, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie KIT, Germany Data-and information-based learning and prediction: Background and applications from Hydrology and Meteorology
09.05.19 Prof. Chris Zevenbergen, IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Netherlands Shifting time horizons in (urban) flood risk management
11.03.19 Dr. Wolfgang Kron, Munich Re Risk Quantification in the (re-)insurance industry
11.03.19 Dr. Holger Cammerer, DEVK Rückversicherung Risk Quantification in the (re-)insurance industry
16.01.19 Dr. Massimiliano Pittore, GFZ Potsdam, Germany From multi-hazard to multi-risk: Exploring complex systemic risk in Chile, Peru and Ecuador

Invited Lectures in 2018

Date Name Title
05.12.18 Dr. Anette Eltner, TU Dresden, Germany UAV photogrammetry for geomorphological and hydrological monitoring
21.11.18 Prof. Dr. Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Department of Environmental Engineering DTU Kopenhagen, Denmark Changing flood risk in cities, what are the drivers and how do we manage?
20.11.18 Myrna de Hoop, University of Utrecht, Netherlands and Jennifer von Keyserlingk, TU Berlin, Germany Studying the effect of grazing on vegetation dynamics in Cyprus using a change detection method and local knowledge
19.09.18 Dr. Christian Otto, PIK Potsdam, Germany Modeling the global economic repercussions of local disasters - The dynamic agent-based model acclimate
28.06.18 Prof. Dr. Rajendra Singh, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, India Current Water Management Issues in India: Approaches, problems, and possible solutions
16.04.18 Prof. Dr. Kuo Fong Ma, National Central University of Taiwan, China Taiwan Earthquake Model: Progress and Challenges
28.03.18 Prof. Dr. Thorsten Wagener, University of Bristol, UK Utilizing Global Sensitivity Analysis to support model development, application and decision making across natural hazard areas
07.02.18 Yasutaka Haneda, University of Tokyo, Center for Spatial Information Science, Japan The spatial distribution of landslides after the Komamoto earthquake 2016
12.01.18 Prof. Dr. John Anderson, University of Nevada, Reno, US Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the United States: Overview, Logic Trees and Induced Seismicity

Invited Lectures in 2017

Date Name Title
13.11.17 Prof. Michel Campillo, Grenoble University, France Passive monitoring of seismic velocity change at different time scales
24.10.17 Dr. R. Maheswaran , MVGR College of Engineering, India Multiscale Hydrological forecasting and modelling using wavelets based nonlinear models
19.10.17 Dr. Wolfgang Kron, Munich Re Coasts – The riskiest places on earth
11.10.17 Dr. Nishant Malik, Dartmouth College, Hanover, US Transitivity reinforcement in coevolving network models
12.09.17 Max Schneider, University of Washington Where could the earthquakes happen (and how certain can we be)?: Towards better disaster risk decision-making in the Pacific Northwest
11.07.17 Dr. Diana Sietz, Wageningen University Knowledge on dynamic ecosystem regimes is vital to achieve sustainable land management
30.06.17 Prof. Karsten Schulz, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna (BOKU) (Austria) The importance of temperature (sensing) in hydrology
20.06.17 Prof. Scira Menoni, Politecnico di Milano (Italy) Pre- and post-disaster damage assessment for multiple sectors and at different spatial and temporal scales
09.06.17 Nico Bahro, Universität Innsbruck (Austria) Agentenbasierte Modellierung in der Hydrologie - Ideen zur Entwicklung einer Schnittstelle
05.05.17 Dr. Klaus Bittermann, Tufts University Boston (USA) Human Impact on US Costal Floods
03.04.17 Paul Hudson, IVM Amsterdam (Netherlands) Flood insurance - a tool for a more resilient society
07.03.17 Prof. Marco Borga, University of Padova (Italy) Hydrologic and geomorphic response to extreme storms in river systems
07.03.17 Dr. Michael Bründl, Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF (Switzerland) Evaluation and assessment of river flooding hazards and risks
06.03.17 Prof. Peter Rutschmann, TU München Measuring and modelling river floods
06.03.17 Dr. Donal Mullan, Queens University Belfast (UK) Modelling global change

Invited Lectures in 2016

Date Name Title
11.11.16 Prof. Günter Blöschl, TU Wien - Centre for Water Resource Systems (Austria) Progress in flood research
07.10.16 Prof. Rainer Helmig, University of Stuttgart Numerical models for evaluating the competitive use in the subsurface: The influence of energy storage and production in groundwater
06.10.16 Prof. Jesus Carrera, CSIC Barcelona (Spain) Numerical simulation to assess the competition for pore space in the subsurface
19.07.16 Dr. Swenja Surminski, London School of Economics (UK) Role of insurance in addressing current and future flood risks – the case of Flood Re in the UK
27.06.16 Prof. Eduardo Martins, FUNCEME (Fortaleza, Brazil) Hydro-meteorological forecasting in NE-Brazil
27.06.16 Prof. Mario Mendinondo, University of São Paulo (Brazil) Early Warning Systems for Disaster Risk Reduction of Hydrologic Extremes on Vulnerable Communities
23.03.16 Dr. Christian Kuhlicke, UFZ Leipzig Managing uncertainties in climate change adaptation: The case of future flooding in England
14.03.16 Dr. Wolfgang Kron, Munich Re Risk Quantification in the (re-)insurance industry
14.03.16 Dr. Holger Cammerer, DEVK Rückversicherung Risk Quantification in the (re-)insurance industry
10.02.16 Prof. Efrat Morin, Hebrew University Jerusalem (Israel) Extreme desert rain storms and flash floods: Insights gained from space-time analysis