Timescale: Oct. 2018 – Sept. 2021
Prof. Dr. Uwe Ulbrich, Freie Universität Berlin
Prof. Dr. Henning Rust, Freie Universität Berlin
European windstorms are known to be highly variable in terms of their overall severity, spatial extension, internal variability and duration at individual locations. These characteristics can be associated with the distribution of wind extremes within the storm field, which in turn has a certain form in space, and the progress of its overall location. The project aims at a quantification of these characteristics based on observed and simulated wind storms from ensemble predictions. An identification and understanding of the key parameters determining these characteristics is the goal of this project.
Objectives and Methods
Development of a classification scheme of potential windstorm development in time and space based on ECMWF Ensemble simulations and available re-simulations.Identification of characteristical large scale situations: lower and upper level baroclinicity fields; location of pressure gradients in relation to temperature and humidity anomalies according to re-analysis, status of stationary and travelling upper tropospheric waves, status and change rates of key variability patterns like NAO/AO/EA/SCAND for different clusters.Relate explosiveness of cyclones and intensification of wind stormTransferability of results to the Pacific region.