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Workpackage P: Prediction of transient states of hazard and risk

  • Can we utilize the transient character of such systems to make predictions for the future and for other regions?
  • What is the uncertainty and predictive power of such methods?

These questions include the development of non-stationary models and the check of their explanatory power and uncertainty by comparing model results with observations.

Project PDA: Stationarity vs. Non-Stationarity and the effect on respective probabilities

Dr. Kristin Vogel, Universität Potsdam