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Workpackage P: Prediction of transient states of hazard and risk

  • Can we utilize the transient character of such systems to make predictions for the future and for other regions?
  • What is the uncertainty and predictive power of such methods?

These questions include the development of non-stationary models and the check of their explanatory power and uncertainty by comparing model results with observations.

http://www.uni-potsdam.de/natriskchange/index/projects/project-p1-landslide-prediction-under-changing-boundary-conditions.html

Project P1: Landslide Prediction Under Changing Boundary Conditions

Ugur Öztürk, Universität Potsdam

http://www.uni-potsdam.de/natriskchange/index/projects/project-p2-transient-merging-of-two-rhine-flow-regimes-from-climate-change.html

Project P2: Transient merging of different Rhine flow regimes from climate change

Berry Boessenkool, Universität Potsdam

http://www.uni-potsdam.de/natriskchange/index/projects/project-p3-spatio-temporal-response-of-extreme-precipitation-to-climate-change-and-decadal-climate-variability.html

Project P3: Spatio-temporal response of extreme precipitation to climate change and decadal climate

Madlen Fischer, FU Berlin

http://www.uni-potsdam.de/natriskchange/index/projects/project-p4-assessment-of-early-warning-signals-and-tipping-points-of-sudden-ecosystem-shifts-causing-rapid-land-degradation-in-drylands.html

Project P4: Assessment of early-warning signals and tipping points of sudden ecosystem shifts

Jennifer von Keyserlingk, Universität Potsdam and TU Berlin

Project P5: Altered hydrological and sediment event dynamics in high alpine areas

Project P5: Altered hydrological and sediment event dynamics in high alpine areas

Lena Katharina Schmidt, Universität Potsdam

Project P6: Linking occurrence probabilities to large scale flow

Project P6: Linking occurrence probabilities to large scale flow

Jana Ulrich, FU Berlin

http://www.uni-potsdam.de/natriskchange/index/projects/project-pda-stationarity-versus-non-stationarity-and-the-effect-on-respective-probabilities.html

Project P7: Adaptation to flood risk - from quantification to prediction of adaptive behaviour o

Lisa Berghäuser, Universität Potsdam

Project P8: Changing water and energy regimes for key alpine surface conditions

Project P8: Changing water and energy conditions and their relevance for water and sediment pulses i

University of Potsdam

Project P9: Introducing big-data and crowdsourcing to seismic hazard assessment

Project P9: Introducing big-data and crowdsourcing to seismic hazard assessment

GFZ Potsdam & University of Potsdam

Project P10: Predicting large landslides in a changing climate

Project P10: Predicting large landslides from complex networks

PIK Potsdam & University of Potsdam