PostDoc-Project PDA by Dr. Kristin Vogel (UP): Machine learning applications in natural hazards assessment

Timescale: Oct. 2015 – March 2020

Within NatRiskChange, this position aims at providing a robust statistical umbrella for the single PhD-projects with respect to the risk analysis. The main innovation lies in the non-stationary (transient) approach to the respective hazard and risk, as compared to the classical, stationary one. Using established techniques of statistical null hypothesis testing, the project will formulate and conduct corresponding tests for several of the PhD-projects of NatRiskChange, and assess the added value of using a non-stationary approach. Kristin Vogel liaises with selected PhD-projects, contributes to support and advise the PhD-candidates on particular issues of their research, particularly those that go beyond the advisors’ obligations.

Her project “Stationarity versus non-stationarity and the effect on respective probabilities” takes a leading role concerning the methodological comparison and integration of the different results from the PhD projects of NatRiskChange. Kristin Vogel is based at the Institute of Environmental Sciences and Geography at University of Potsdam.

Publications within NatRiskChange:

AGARWAL, A., BOESSENKOOL, B., FISCHER, M., Hahn, I., Köhn, L., LAUDAN, J., MORAN, T., OZTURK, U., Riemer, A., Rözer, V., SIEG, T., VOGEL, K., WENDI, D., Bronstert, A., Thieken, A.H. (2016): Die Sturzflut in Braunsbach, Mai 2016 - Eine Bestandsaufnahme und Ereignisbeschreibung. Taskforce im Rahmen des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World, Universität Potsdam (Publisher), 20 pages, https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394881.

Bronstert, A., Crisologo, I., Heistermann, M., OZTURK, U., VOGEL, K., WENDI, D. (2019): Flash-Floods: More often, More severe, More damaging? An Analysis of Hydro-Geo-Environmental Conditions and Anthropogenic Impacts, accepted for publication in: Springer Book Series "Climate Change Management”, Symposium on "Climate Change and Natural Hazards", University of Padova, Italy, 25-26/02/2019.

LAUDAN, J., Rözer, V., SIEG, T., VOGEL, K., Thieken, A.H. (2017): Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17: 2163–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017.

OZTURK U., WENDI D., Crisologo I., Riemer A., AGARWAL A., VOGEL K., López-Tarazón A. J., Korup O. (2018c): Rare flash floods and debris flows in southern Germany, Science of the Total Environment, 626: 941-952, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.172.

Petrow, Th., Bronstert, A., Thieken, A.H., VOGEL, K. (Eds.) (2018): Book of Abstracts of the International Conference on Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World, Universität Potsdam (Publisher), 118 pages,  urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-416613

Schroeter, K., Luedtke, S., VOGEL, K., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. (2016): Tracing the value of data for flood loss modelling. In: FLOODrisk 2016 - 3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management, https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160705005.

SIEG, T., Schinko T., VOGEL, K., Mechler R., Merz B., Kreibich H. (2019): Integrated Assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic Flood Impacts including Uncertainty Quantification, PLOS One, 14(4), e0212932. doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0212932.

SIEG, T., VOGEL, K., Merz, B., Kreibich, H. (2019): Seamless Estimation of Hydrometeo-rological Risk Across Spatial Scales. Earth‘s Future, 7(4): 574-581, doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001122.

SIEG, T., VOGEL, K., Merz, B., Kreibich, H. (2017): Tree-based flood damage modelling of companies: Damage processes and model performance, Water Resources Research, 53: 1-19, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020784.

VOGEL, K. (2017): Learning Markov Blankets - Extending on a MAP Criterion for Bayesian Network Learning, In: Safety, Reliability, Risk, Resilience and Sustainability of Structures and Infrastructure, 12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability, Vienna, Austria, 6-10/08/2017, 2868-2877, TU-Verlag Vienna (Publisher), ISBN 978-3-903024-28-1.

VOGEL, K., LAUDAN, J., SIEG, T., Rözer, V., Winter, B., Thieken, A.H. (2017b): Data collection for a damage assessment after the flash flood in Braunsbach (Germany) in May 2016, GFZ Data Services, https://doi.org/10.5880/fidgeo.2017.015.

VOGEL, K., OZTURK, U., Riemer, A., LAUDAN, J., SIEG, T., WENDI, D., AGARWAL, A., Rözer, V., Korup, O., Thieken, A.H. (2017a): Die Sturzflut von Braunsbach am 29. Mai 2016 - Entstehung, Ablauf und Schäden eines “Jahrhundertereignisses”. Teil 2: Geomorphologische Prozesse und Schadensanalyse, Hydrologie & Wasserbewirtschaftung, 61(3): 163-175, https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2017,3_2.

VOGEL, K., Weise, L., Schröter, K., Thieken, A.H. (2018): Identifying Driving Factors in Flood Damaging Processes Using Graphical Models, Water Resources Research, 54: 8864-8889, doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022858.