Earth's ecosystems are endangered by climate change and many are becoming less resilient as they come under increasing pressure. Ecological tipping points – rapid changes toward a new state – play a crucial role in this context. However, predicting whether the Amazon will change from a rainforest into a savannah, or how quickly Greenland’s ice sheet may disappear is extremely difficult. One problem in many ecosystems is seasonal cycles which make understanding slower, climate-change driven, changes more difficult.
This is where a study by researchers of the University of Potsdam, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and the Technical University of Munich comes in. The authors developed a new method for measuring the resilience of ecosystems and expanded the types of data that can be assessed within the framework of tipping points. To test their approach, they applied it to two real-world examples: the Amazon rainforest and mountain glaciers in Alaska and Asia.
“Glacier surges are a dangerous phenomenon in many parts of the world, and predicting them is complicated,” says the lead author Taylor Smith from the Institute of Geosciences at the University of Potsdam. “With our method, we can now test how stable a glacier is and document predictions of surges multiple years in advance.”
The team's findings could help improve natural hazard monitoring, as well as our understanding of how glaciers are responding to climate change. Their new method also enables research into the impact of climate change or other processes on many different ecosystems. Since it comes without the need for complex data pre-processing, Dr Smith is optimistic: “It can be widely used to assess how different Earth systems are responding to climate change.”
Link to Publication: Taylor Smith, Andreas Morr, Bodo Bookhagen, Niklas Boers. Predicting Instabilities in Transient Landforms and Interconnected Ecosystems, Nat. Comm. 2026 hps://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68944-w
Contact:
Dr. Taylor Smith, Institute of Geosciences
Tel.: +49 331 977-5845
taylor.smithuuni-potsdampde
Media Information 06-02-2026 / Nr. 017