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List of Publications


Agarwal, A., Marwan, N., Ozturk, U., Rathinasamy, M. (2019) Unfolding Community Structure in Rainfall Network of Germany Using Complex Network-Based Approach: Climate and Environment. pp 179-193. In: Water Resources and Environmental Engineering II. Springer Verlag., doi: https://10.1007/978-981-13-2038-5_17.



Fiedler, B., Hainzl, S., Zöller, G., Holschneider, M. (2018) Detection of Gutenberg–Richter b‐Value Changes in Earthquake Time Series. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America: 108 (5A): 2778–2787. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180091

Sultana, Z., Sieg, T., Kellermann, P., Müller, M., Kreibich, H. (2018). Assessment of Business Interruption of Flood-Affected Companies Using Random Forests. Water. 10(8), 1049; https://doi.org/10.3390/w10081049

Wendi, D., Marwan, N. (2018). Extended recurrence plot and quantification for noisy continuous dynamical systems. Chaos. 28. 085722. doi: https://10.1063/1.5025485.

Kim, D., Sun, Y., Wendi, D., Jiang, Z., Liong, S., Gourbesville, P. (2018). Flood Modelling Framework for Kuching City, Malaysia: Overcoming the Lack of Data. 559-568. In: Advances in Hydroinformatics, Springer Verlag. doi: https://10.1007/978-981-10-7218-5_39.

Agarwal, A., Marwan, N., Rathinasamy, M., Ozturk, U., Merz, B., and Kurths, J.: Optimal Design of Hydrometric Station Networks Based on Complex Network Analysis, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-113, in review.

Zurlini, G., Marwan, N., Semeraro, T., Jones, B.K., Aretano, R., Pasimeni, M.R., Valente, D., Mulder, Ch., Petrosillo, I. (2018) Investigating landscape phase transitions in Mediterranean rangelands by recurrence analysis, Landscape Ecology: 33: 1617. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-018-0693-1

Fischer, M., Rust, H.W., Ulbrich, U. (2018): Seasonal Cycle im German Daily Precipitation Extremes, MetZet, 27(1): 3-13.DOI: https://10.1127/metz/2017/0845

Wendi, D., Marwan, N., & Merz, B. (2018). In Search of Determinism-Sensitive Region to Avoid Artefacts in Recurrence Plots. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos, 28(1), 1850007. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218127418500074

Bronstert A., Agarwal, A., Boessenkool B., Crisologo I., Fischer M., Heistermann M., Köhn-Reich L., Moran T., Ozturk U., Reinhardt-Imjela C., Wendi D.: Forensic hydro-meteorological analysis of an extreme flash flood: The 29/05/2016 event in Braunsbach, SW Germany, STOTEN, doi: https://10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.241.

Veh, G., Korup, O., Roessner, S. & Walz. A. (2018): Detecting Himalayan Glacial Lake Outburst Floods from Landsat time series. Remote Sensing of Environment , Volume 207, 15: 84-97, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.12.025

J. Piña-Valdés, A. Socquet, F. Cotton, S. von Specht (2018): Spatio-temporal variations of ground motion in northern Chile before and after the 2014 Mw 8.1 Iquique megathrust event, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, DOI:https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170052

Ozturk U., Wendi D., Crisologo I., Riemer A., Agarwal A., Vogel K., López-Tarazón A. J., Korup O.: Rare flash floods and debris flows in southern Germany, STOTEN, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.172, 2018.

Fiedler, B., Zöller, G., Holschneider, M., Hainzl, S. (2018) Multiple  change-point detection in spatio-temporal seismicity data. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (3A): 1147-1159. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170236

Fischer, M., Rust, H.W., Ulbrich, U (2018).: A spatial and seasonal climatology of extreme precipitation return-levels; A case study, Spatial Statistics, DOI: https://10.1016/j.spasta.2017.11.007

Ozturk U., Marwan N., Korup O., Saito H., Agarwal A., Grossman M. J., Zaiki M., and Kurths J.: Complex networks for tracking extreme rainfall during typhoons, Chaos, 28(7):075301 doi:https://10.1063/1.5004480

Ozturk, U., Marwan, N., von Specht, S., Korup, O., & Jensen, J. (2018). A new centennial sea-level record for Antalya, eastern Mediterranean. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123,4503–4517. doi.org/10.1029/2018JC013906.

Bubeck, P., Thieken, A. (2018). What helps people recover from floods? Insights from a survey among flood-affected residents in Germany. Regional Environmental Change. 18. 287-296. doi: https://10.1007/s10113-017-1200-y.

Bubeck, P., W. Botzen, J. Laudan, J. Aerts, A.H. Thieken. (2018): Insights into flood-coping appraisals of Protection Motivation Theory: Empirical evidence from Germany and France. – Risk Analysis, 38(6):1239-1257. doi: https://10.1111/risa.12938.


Agarwal, A., Marwan, N., Rathinasamy, M., Merz, B. and Kurths, J.: Multi-scale event synchronization analysis for unravelling climate processes: A wavelet-based approach, Nonlinear Process. Geophys. Discuss., 1–20, doi:10.5194/npg-2017-19, 2017. 

Boessenkool, B., Bürger, G., Heistermann, M. (2017): Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures,  https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1623-2017

Bronstert, A., Agarwal, A., Boessenkool, B., Fischer, M., Heistermann, M., Köhn-Reich, L., Moran T., Wendi, D. (2017): Die Sturzflut von Braunsbach am 29. Mai 2016 – Entstehung, Ablauf und Schäden eines „Jahrhundertereignisses“. Teil 1: Meteorologische und hydrologische Analyse – Hydrologie & Wasserbewirtschaftung, 61, (3), 150-162; DOI: https://10.5675/HyWa_2017,3_1

Ehlert, T. & S. Natho. 2017 Auenrenaturierung in Deutschland - Analyse zum Stand der Umsetzung einer bundesweiten Datenbank. Auenmagazin 12: 4-9.

I. Didovets, A Lobanova, A Bronstert, S Snizhko, CF Maule, V Krysanova: Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling, Water 9 (3), 204, 2017

Laudan, J., Rözer, V., Sieg, T., Vogel, K. and Thieken, A. H. (2017): Damage assessment in Braunsbach 2016: data collection and analysis for an improved understanding of damaging processes during flash floods. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2163–2179. doi: https://10.5194/nhess-17-2163-2017.

Ramos, A.M.T., A. Builes-Jaramillo, G. Poveda, B. Goswami, E.E.N. Macau, J. Kurths, N. Marwan (2017): Recurrence measure of conditional dependence and applications. Physical Review E 95, 052206, doi: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.95.052206

Riedl, M., N. Marwan and J. Kurths (2017): Extended generalized recurrence plot quantification of complex patterns, European Physical Journal B, 90(58):1-9. DOI: 10.1140/epjb/e2017-70560-7

Siddharth Chaudhary , A. Agarwal and T. Nakamura. (2017) Rainfall Projection in Yamuna River Basin, India Using Statistical Downscaling. Accepted in Springer book chapter. {Book Chapter}

Sieg, T., K. Vogel, B. Merz, and H. Kreibich (2017), Tree-based flood damage modeling of companies: Damage processes and model performance, Water Resources Research, 53, 1–19, doi: https://10.1002/2017WR020784.

Socquet, A., Valdez, J. P., Jara, J., Cotton, F., Walpersdorf, A., Cotte, N., von Specht, S., Ortega-Culaciati, F., Carrizo, D., Norabuena, E. (2017): An 8 month slow slip event triggers progressive nucleation of the 2014 Chile megathrust. - Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 9, p. 4046-4053. doi: http://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073023

Rathinasamy, M., Agarwal, A., Parmar, V., Khosa, R., & Bairwa, A. (2017). Partial wavelet coherence analysis for understanding the standalone relationship between Indian Precipitation and Teleconnection patterns. arXiv preprint arXiv:1702.06568 {submitted to JOH}

Spekkers, M., Rözer, V., Thieken, A., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., and Kreibich, H. (2017): A comparative survey of the impacts of extreme rainfall in two international case studies, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1337–1355. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-125.

Venohr, M., Natho S. & J. Hofmann (2017) Water quality management: modeling of nutrient emissions with MONERIS in Sustainable Water and Agricultural Land Use in the Guanting Basin under Limited Water Resources (Konzepte für die nachhaltige Entwicklung einer Flusslandschaft), (Hrsg.) Wechsung, F., Kaden, S. Venohr, M., Meisel, J. & Z. Xu, 225-271. Schweizerbart'sche, E. pp 317. ISBN-13: 978-3510653256

Vogel, K. (2017): Learning Markov Blankets - Extending on a MAP Criterion for Bayesian Network Learning. In Safety, Reliability, Risk, Resilience and Sustainability of Structures and Infrastructure, 12th International Conference on Structural Safety & Reliability, Vienna, Austria, 6-10 August 2017, 2868-2877. ©2017 TU-Verlag Vienna, ISBN 978-3-903024-28-1

Vogel, K., Laudan, J., Sieg, T., Rözer, V., Winter, B., and Thieken, A. H. (2017): Data collection for a damage assessment after the flash flood in Braunsbach (Germany) in May 2016. GFZ Data Services. doi:10.5880/fidgeo.2017.015

Vogel, K., U. Ozturk, A. Riemer, J. Laudan, T. Sieg, D. Wendi,  A. Agarwal, V. Rözer, O. Korup, A.H. Thieken (2017): Die Sturzflut von Braunsbach am 29. Mai 2016 - Entstehung, Ablauf und Schäden eines “Jahrhundertereignisses”. Teil 2: Geomorphologische Prozesse und Schadensanalyse. Hydrologie & Wasserbewirtschaftung, 61(3), 163-175. http://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2017,3_2

Didovets, I., Lobanova, A., Bronstert, A., Snizhko, S., Fox Maule, C., A.,Krysanova, V. (2017) Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling. Water 9(3), 204. DOI: https://10.3390/w9030204.

Zang, A., O. Stephansson, L. Stenberg, K. Plenkers, S. Specht, C. Milkereit, E. Schill, G. Kwiatek, G. Dresen, G. Zimmermann, T. Dahm, M. Weber (2017): Hydraulic fracture monitoring in hard rock at 410 m depth with an advanced fluid-injection protocol and extensive sensor array, Geophys J Int:  208 (2): 790-813. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggw430.


Laudan, J., Rözer, V., Sieg, T., Vogel, K., Thieken, A.H. (2016):Brief communication: On-site data collection of damage caused by flash floods: Experiences from Braunsbach, Germany, in May/June 2016. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/nhess-2016-387

Bronstert, A., Bormann, H., Bürger, G., Haberlandt, U., Hattermann, F., Heistermann, M., Huang, S., Kolokotronis, V., Kundzewicz, Z., Menzel, L., Meon, G., Merz, B., Meuser, A., Paton, E.N., Petrow, Th. (2016): Hochwasser und Sturzfluten an Flüssen in Deutschland. In: Brasseur, G.P., Jacob, D., Schuck-Zöller, S. (Eds.): Klimawandel in Deutschland Entwicklung, Folgen, Risiken und Perspektiven, Springer Verlag, ISBN: 978-3-662-50396-6 (Print) 978-3-662-50397-3 (Online), S. 87-101.

Dobler, A., Feldmann, H., Ulbrich, U., Jacob, D., Kottmeier, Ch. (2016): Grenzen und Herausforderungen der regionalen Klimamodellierung. In: Guy P. Brasseur, Daniela Jacob, Susanne Schuck-Zöller (Eds.): Klimawandel in Deutschland Entwicklung, Folgen, Risiken und Perspektiven, Springer Verlag, ISBN: 978-3-662-50396-6 (Print) 978-3-662-50397-3 (Online), S. 37-44.

Kienzler, S., Kreibich, H., Müller, M., Pech, P. Thieken, A. H. (2016): Assessment of flood loss model transferability considering changes in precaution of flood-affected residents in Germany. E3S Web of Conferences 7, 13002.

Schwanghart, W., Bernhardt, A., Stolle, A., Hoelzmann, P., Adhikari, B.R., Andermann, C., Tofelde, S., Merchel, S., Rugel, G., Fort, M., Korup, O. (2016): Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Science, 351, 147-150 [DOI: 10.1126/science.aac9865].

Rözer, V., M. Müller, P. Bubeck, S. Kienzler, A. Thieken, I. Pech, K. Schröter, O. Buchholz, H. Kreibich (2016): Coping with pluvial floods by private households. – Water 8(7): 304; doi: https://10.3390/w8070304.

Agarwal, A., R. Maheswaran, J. Kurths and R. Khosa (2016): Wavelet Spectrum and Self-Organizing Maps-Based Approach for Hydrologic Regionalization - a Case Study in the Western Unites States. Water Resources Management, 1-15. First online 12 July 2016. DOI 10.1007/s11269-016-1428-1

Thieken, A. H., T. Bessel, S. Kienzler, H. Kreibich, M. Müller, S. Pisi and K. Schröter (2016): The flood of June 2013 in Germany: how much do we know about its impacts?. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16: 1519-1540, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1519-2016. doi: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/1519/2016/

Thieken, A. H., S. Kienzler, H. Kreibich, Ch. Kuhlicke, M. Kunz, B. Mühr, M.Müller, A. Otto, Th. Petrow, S. Pisi and K. Schröter (2016): Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013. Ecology andSociety 21(2):51. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-08547-210251


Riedl, M., N. Marwan and J. Kurths (2015): Multiscale recurrence analysis of spatio-temporal data, Chaos, 25, 123111. doi: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4937164

Kienzler, S., Falter, D., Jentsch, S., Thieken, A. H. (2015): Reduktion von Hochwasserschäden im Zusammenspiel von staatlicher und privater Vorsorge – eine Fallstudie an der Mulde. Korrespondenz Wasserwirtschaft 11: 680-687.

Kienzler, S., Pech, I., Kreibich, H., Müller, M., Thieken, A. H. (2015): After the extreme flood in 2002: changes in preparedness, response and recovery of flood-affected residents in Germany between 2005 and 2011. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 15: 505-526.

Philips, A., Walz, A., Bergner, A., Graeff, T., Heistermann, M., Kienzler, S., Korup, O., Lipp, T., Schwanghart, W., Zeilinger, G. (2015): Immersive 3D geovisualisation in higher education. Journal of Geography in Higher Education 39(3): 437-449.

Stolle, A., Langer, M., Blöthe, J.H., Korup, O., 2015. On Predicting Debris Flows in Arid Mountain Belts. Global and Planetary Change 126, 1-13.




Book on climate change impacts: "Klimawandel in Deutschland: Entwicklung, Folgen, Risiken und Perspektiven"

November 3rd 2016

The new compendium „Klimawandel in Deutschland: Entwicklung, Folgen, Risiken und Perspektiven“, edited by Guy P. Brasseur, Daniela Jacob, and Susanne Schuck-Zöller was released. It gives a comprehensive overview about all aspects of climate change, its impact and adaptation measures in Germany. The interdisciplinary book was published at Springer Verlag.

Target audience of "Klimawandel in Deutschland" are professionals of all disciplines from politics, economy, science to adminisitration that are affected by climate change issues. It includes sound information about climate change and related aspects and reactions.

NatRiskChange members* contributed to the following chapters:

Kapitel 5: Grenzen und Herausforderungen der regionalen Klimamodellierung
Authors: Andreas Dobler, Hendrik Feldmann, Uwe Ulbrich*

Kapitel 10: Hochwasser und Sturzfluten an Flüssen in Deutschland
Authors: Axel Bronstert*, Helge Bormann, Gerd Bürger*, Uwe Haberlandt, Fred Hattermann,
Maik Heistermann, Shaochun Huang, Vassilis Kolokotronis, Zbigniew Kundzewicz, Lucas Menzel,
Günter Meon, Bruno Merz*, Andreas Meuser, Eva Nora Paton*, Theresia Petrow*

A press release by Climate Service Center Hamburg can be found here. The chapters are accessible via Open Access. There is also an eBook version available.