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In the wake of changing hydro-climatological, geo-physical and socio-economic conditions the magnitude, frequency and impact of certain types of natural hazards are likely bound to change as well. This is highly of utmost importance for many regions in the world where risks due to natural hazards have to be managed and mitigated and this is where the research training group “Natural hazards and risks in a changing world (NatRiskChange)” aims to foster the scientific knowledge basis. This research training group started on October 1st 2015 and is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG. The central goal of NatRiskChange is to pursue the development of methods to improve hazard and risk analysis and quantification based on the transient, non-stationary nature of hazards and risks in response to changing natural and anthropogenically altered components of the Earth system. Key scientific aims are the development, testing, and pilot application of studies on identification, quantification (mechanisms) and prediction of transient natural hazards and associated risks.
The former NatRiskChange PhD student Tobias Sieg (project Q4) developed a method for hydro-meteorological hazard damage estimation at seamless spatial scales. This method enables probabilistic object-based damage estimation under the consideration of the associated uncertainties, consistently at all spatial scales. So far, the method was applied and positively validated to a flood event in Germany. The next step is the application of the method to meteorological hazards and possibly compound events. Tobias Sieg wrote a Blog Post about his research he conducted together with scientists from IIASA in Laxenburg.