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  • DFG - Research Training Group "NatRiskChange"

NatRiskChange Calendar - June 2018

The general title of this project - Understanding drivers of changing susceptibility of flood prone residents -characterizes a broad field of research. How are people affected by flooding? What damage can be expected?What are the possibilities to adapt and mitigate damage in future? To answer these questions, surveys areanalysed which were conducted among flood-affected German households after severe riverine flooding in2002 and 2013. In addition to socioeconomic variables and information about the affected buildings,psychological characteristics of people were recorded. Using a psychological model - i.e. the "ProtectionMotivation Theory" - the mental impact of riverine flooding and the precautionary behaviour were analysed.Further, it has been revealed that private precaution measures can lower damage to buildings significantly.Due to changes in climate and land use, gaining insights into different types of flooding in Germany becomesincreasingly important since rapid floods like flash floods and pluvial floods might occur more often in future.Hence, it becomes relevant as well to learn how people are affected by different flood types.At the end of June 2016, Southern Germany suffered from very intense rainfall eventually leading to flashfloods in several municipalities. Especially Braunsbach - a small town counting 2500 residents - was hit by asevere flash flood which caused high damage to buildings and infrastructure.A data collection and damage assessment was conducted one week after the event to identify potential damagedriving factors of flash floods in the case of Braunsbach. The post hoc analysis revealed that the damage wasmainly caused by colliding debris and erosion and occured more often at highly exposed buildings.This indicates a significant difference to damage driving factors of riverine flooding.The presented map shows affected streets in Braunsbach and a derived "Local impact", describing the externaland physical water force acting on buildings in that area.

Jonas Laudan

Welcome to the RTG NatRiskChange

In the wake of changing hydro-climatological, geo-physical and socio-economic conditions the magnitude, frequency and impact of certain types of natural hazards are likely bound to change as well. This is highly of utmost importance for many regions in the world where risks due to natural hazards have to be managed and mitigated and this is where the research training group “Natural hazards and risks in a changing world (NatRiskChange)” aims to foster the scientific knowledge basis. This research training group started on October 1st 2015 and is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG. The central goal of NatRiskChange is to pursue the development of methods to improve hazard and risk analysis and quantification based on the transient, non-stationary nature of hazards and risks in response to changing natural and anthropogenically altered components of the Earth system. Key scientific aims are the development, testing, and pilot application of studies on identification, quantification (mechanisms) and prediction of transient natural hazards and associated risks.

Damaged village of Braunsbach in 2016

Survey of damaged companies finished

Within NatRiskChange, a telephone aided survey was conducted in October and November 2017 among companies, which were affected from heavy rainfall or flash flood events in 2014 to 2016. We aim at gathering information about the companies experiences with severe weather warning systems, the type and extent of the damage as well es the state of recovery. Results shall identify improved mitigation measures for the management of eavy rainfall events. We thank all participants of the survey for their support!

Damaged village of Braunsbach in 2016