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The picture shows the denition and an example for the calculation of a Bayes factor. e Bayes factor plays a signicant role for the model selection in a lot of approaches. In our case we want to identify change-points in seismicity data and use the Bayes factor to select a suitable model.
The knowledge of the associated changes of the earthquake activity is of great interest, because it might help to identify natural aseismic deformation patterns, such as slow slip events, as well as the occurrence of induced seismicity related to human activities. For example, the growing amount of industrial projects related to the injection of uids at depth has led to the question, to which degree the seismic hazard changes at an injection site.
To put it into a nutshell the project “Study of transient periods in natural and in induced seismicity (I2)” aims at identifying various kinds of transients in seismicity and assessing the corresponding uncertainties. While transient behavior has been studied so far with respect to time, we particularly focus on spatio-temporal transients in this project. Advanced methods of statistical modeling are used to distinguish transient behavior arising from natural or man-made processes.
In the wake of changing hydro-climatological, geo-physical and socio-economic conditions the magnitude, frequency and impact of certain types of natural hazards are likely bound to change as well. This is highly of utmost importance for many regions in the world where risks due to natural hazards have to be managed and mitigated and this is where the new research training group “Natural hazards and risks in a changing world (NatRiskChange)” aims to foster the scientific knowledge basis. This research training group started on October 1st 2015 and is funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG. The central goal of NatRiskChange is to pursue the development of methods to improve hazard and risk analysis and quantification based on the transient, non-stationary nature of hazards and risks in response to changing natural and anthropogenically altered components of the Earth system. Key scientific aims are the development, testing, and pilot application of studies on identification, quantification (mechanisms) and prediction of transient natural hazards and associated risks.
Within NatRiskChange, a telephone aided survey was conducted in October and November 2017 among companies, which were affected from heavy rainfall or flash flood events in 2014 to 2016. We aim at gathering information about the companies experiences with severe weather warning systems, the type and extent of the damage as well es the state of recovery. Results shall identify improved mitigation measures for the management of eavy rainfall events. We thank all participants of the survey for their support!